Helping manufacturers understand supply chain emissions through satellite data

Summary

TransitionZero was a founding member of the Climate TRACE coalition

Today, we support Climate TRACE with data for underreported heavy industries like steel

Climate TRACE coalition data is used by multinational manufacturers, including Tesla, Boeing and General Motors, to support supply chain decisions

Background

TransitionZero is a founding member of Climate TRACE, a global non-profit coalition created in 2021 with the aim of driving faster climate action through the tracking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with remarkable speed and details. Today, it is a $10 million a year coalition. TransitionZero is one of twelve members, alongside the office of Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, RMI, OceanMind and WattTime.

The algorithms underpinning the development of Climate TRACE, were also listed in Time Magazine's The Best 100 Inventions of 2020.

Our work began with power sector emissions data, but our current contribution to Climate TRACE centres on modelling emissions for manufacturing and heavy industry, focusing on five key sub-sectors: steel, cement, aluminium, pulp and paper, and chemicals. We’ve been focusing on manufacturing for the coalition because it’s the heaviest-emitting sector on the planet after power.

There is a widespread lack of transparency in heavy industry, with very little data publicly available data. Our contributions to Climate TRACE help shine some much needed light on sector.

The project

"I was able to get John Kerry 20 copies in Mandarin, which he handed over to Xie Zhenhua … and the statements this morning by President Xi Jinping may have reflected some of that analysis. I believe it did.”

Al Gore

Former U.S. Vice President

To tackle this information gap, TransitionZero gathers as much available data as possible, starting with all the global monthly and annual production data for each sub-sector. This includes some ground truth data from certain companies and details on the technology used at specific facilities.

Additionally, we incorporate satellite data, particularly hotspot detection through infrared heat signatures. Many heavy industry sites have extremely hot components, like furnaces, which allows facility activity estimation based on the intensity of the heat—or when equipment has cooled down.

After collecting the data, we apply machine learning to disaggregate and refine these estimates. Since ground truth data alone isn’t enough for training, unsupervised methods like cross-validation to allocate production to individual facilities are also used.

As manufacturers implement practical strategies to meet ESG targets and reach net zero goals, better, more comprehensive, up-to-date data is critical. Companies including Tesla, Boeing and General Motors use Climate TRACE’s steel productivity and emissions data to inform supply chain decisions.

Looking ahead

Until recently, TransitionZero’s tools were primarily focused on analysing historical data. Now, it is shifting towards forward-looking work, aiming to support both commercial and government energy transition goals by better quantifying and assessing tradeoffs between different factors.

As the partnership with Climate TRACE continues to grow, we hope to enable a more comprehensive, accurate view of industry emissions.