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January 14, 2025
Open access modelling tools can help make Southeast Asia’s integrated grid a reality
Summary
The ASEAN Power Grid, or APG, is a vision for an integrated grid across the 10 ASEAN countries that is yet to become a reality
But cooperation on grid integration and cross-border electricity trade in Southeast Asia is increasing as member states pursue cleaner, and more secure energy sources
Existing regional grid models and studies can’t keep up with the pace of change
TZ-APG v1, released in December 2024, is an open access power systems model for ASEAN. Updated regularly, it simulates grid-to-grid integration between regional power markets
Results
100
Registered TZ-APG users within a month of release
Problem
"Very often, it’s not just about the technical challenges. It’s about asking “what are we getting ourselves into?” If a country moves towards interconnection and starts to exchange electricity, what does that mean for the country? If we are binding ourselves to a long-term commitment, what does it mean?”
Victor Nian, Founding Co-chair, Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources
The energy transition is bringing Southeast Asian countries closer together. A plan for an integrated, accessible, affordable, and sustainable energy grid in the region, known as the ASEAN Power Grid, or APG, has been in the works for decades. By connecting each country’s energy infrastructure, the whole region can benefit from increased trade, improved access, and more stability in supply. Over the past three years, regional cooperation on grid integration and cross-border electricity trade has seen more progress than ever before.
Member states are seeking ways to improve their energy security, with better access to low-carbon electricity.
As a result, the conventional practice of importing fossil fuels for localised power generation and demand-supply balance is being revisited. Some planners are incorporating new elements into national power plans, such as new cross-border transmission lines or higher import targets, all of which challenge our understanding of how national power systems may evolve and interact with one another in the future. Existing models and studies on the APG have become less helpful as points of reference amidst this fast-evolving landscape.
At the same time, reaching a consensus on this new systems planning approach is neither straightforward nor guaranteed. There’s a need for better, more transparent energy systems modelling and analysis on what regional grid integration means and how it could work for each country and stakeholder.
Product
“In order to secure social and political buy-in for grid development and cross-border trade, there is a clear need for better, transparent data and energy systems analytics on what regional grid integration means and how it could work for each stakeholder. To fill in this analytical gap, TransitionZero has built an ASEAN Power Grid Model (TZ-APG) to address today’s pressing key questions on regional grid planning.”
Thu Vu, Senior Analyst, Southeast Asia, TransitionZero
TZ-APG v1 is the first open access power systems model covering 10 ASEAN countries, simulating grid-to-grid integration between regional power markets.
As a grid dispatch model, TZ-APG optimises both capacity expansion and operation of power plants, storage, and transmission to meet projected electricity demand at each node. All input data and constraints can be revised, updated, or expanded in future iterations of the model.
"While new drivers for an ASEAN Power Grid are emerging, the political sphere requires concrete models on what effects increased electricity trade will have. Tools, such as TZ-APG, will be very useful for partners and stakeholders in the region to help with energy transition decision-making. One of the most interesting aspects of the TZ-APG model is finding out which interconnectors could have the biggest potential impact to the regional power system."
Akbar Dwi Wahyono, Research Analyst, ASEAN Centre for Energy
Looking ahead
TZ-APG is a live, open access model. TransitionZero will continue to conduct new model runs to incorporate improved input data covering demand growth, renewables potentials and profiles, and renewables cost; new constraints such as fossil fuel plants’ operating parameters; and extended modelling horizons with more ambitious net zero emissions targets for 2040 and 2050.
The TZ-APG v1 model is available for download today, along with our report 'From Vision to Voltage: Open Source Modelling of the ASEAN Power Grid', looking at the regional and thematic findings under four different grid scenarios.
Watch our launch webinar here:
