New open source model shows ASEAN countries could reduce power capacity needs by up to 37GW in 2035, saving $3bn through regional grid development

• TZ-APG is a continuously updated open source model focused on transmission across the ASEAN region
• Developed to address fast-emerging questions on regional grid connectivity, TZ-APG’s ability to drill down to the subnational level rivals commercial consultancies’ offerings for depth and granularity
• TransitionZero will be holding a webinar to present TZ-APG and the first modelling results on 5 December - sign up here
• Download the open source TZ-APG v.1 model and the report 'From Vision to Voltage' from 9am GMT / 17:00 SGT, Monday 2nd December here

Media release

London, 2 December 2024: Climate analytics non-profit TransitionZero today announced the results of its ongoing research into ASEAN regional grid development pathways. Using TZ-APG, an open source power system model covering 10 ASEAN countries*, home to ~8% of the world’s population. TZ-APG is a first-of-its-kind framework that will be continuously updated to answer pertinent energy transition questions in the fast-changing region. The model can drill down to subnational level, rivalling the offering of commercial consultancies in granularity and depth.

With new drivers for grid investment and cross-border electricity trade emerging across Southeast Asia, conventional system development pathways of fossil fuel imports and localised power generation are becoming unsuitable. TZ-APG is a continuously updated model built to answer crucial questions on systems planning across the region and within countries. The first iteration of the model, TZ-APG v1, examined four grid interconnection scenarios which currently dominate regional policy discussions within the period 2023-2035 and is presented in the report From Vision to Voltage: Open Source Modelling of the ASEAN Power Grid. Notable results from the report include:

• Regional grid development that enables resource sharing across ASEAN could reduce power capacity needs by 8% or up to 37GW, mostly in storage and gas, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2035. For reference, this equates to 71% of Indonesia’s 2024 operating coal-fired power capacity
• Malaysia has the geostrategic and resource potential to become the new electricity trading hub of ASEAN. What more, grid expansion could help Malaysia reduce its storage and gas capacity by up to 40% and 5%, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario
• Singapore’s import diversification strategy can be cost-effective, but the subsea interconnectors to Cambodia and Vietnam could face low utilisation rates
• The Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines Power Integration Project (BIMP-PIP) deserves regional attention for its potential to facilitate a “green” transmission corridor from Kalimantan to Sabah and Luzon
• Gas development in Vietnam and the Philippines are sensitive to higher electricity imports, indicating the long-term benefits of interconnector investments. Vietnam could cut down gas build-out by 17-21% compared to the BAU scenario with more imports enabled from neighbouring Laos

TZ-APG aims to address areas not yet covered or fully dissected in existing literature, such as country-level impacts of different grid expansion pathways, role of a regional grid in fostering renewable energy and curbing fossil fuels, identification of “green” transmission corridors, and the potential effects of newly proposed bilateral interconnectors on broader regional connectivity.

Thu Vu, Senior Analyst, Southeast Asia, said:

“In order to secure social and political buy-in for grid development and cross-border trade, there is a clear need for better, transparent data and energy systems analytics on what regional grid integration means and how it could work for each stakeholder. To fill in this analytical gap, TransitionZero has built an ASEAN Power Grid Model (TZ-APG) to address today’s pressing key questions on regional grid planning.”

Matt Gray, CEO and Co-founder of TransitionZero, said:

“There’s been much discussion about the need for grid investments, yet there’s a lack of open and accessible modelling tools to enable stakeholders to engage productively in the conversation. TZ-APG provides stakeholders with transparent and accessible insights into the costs, investments, and emissions implications of the ASEAN Power Grid under various scenarios. Initial results indicate that the region can lower electricity costs while enhancing its economic competitiveness.”

TZ-APG is built on PyPSA with a best-in-class spatial resolution, a 24-node model where each country is represented by at least one node. This enables modelling and analysis down to the subnational level, for instance the outlook on the Philippine Luzon’s power system and transmission with neighbouring grids.

As a grid dispatch model, TZ-APG optimises capacity and operation of power plants, storage, and transmission to meet electricity demand and national policy targets at least cost. The model ensures that power demand is matched with adequate supply at every two-hour interval in the modelling period, for the year 2035.

Within the next 6-9 months, TransitionZero plans to conduct new model runs to incorporate improved input data (such as updated demand growth, in-house renewables potentials and profiles, and the latest renewables cost projections); new constraints (fossil fuel plants operating parameters, for example); and extended modelling horizons with more ambitious emissions targets (including net zero emissions by 2040, 2050).

TZ-APG Launch Webinar (5 December) and TZ-APG v1 model and report launch (2 December)

Join TransitionZero analysts on 5 December, 8-9am GMT / 4-5pm SGT, to discuss TZ-APG’s methodology and to review the results of the model’s first run. Signup here.

Download the open source TZ-APG v.1 model and the report 'From Vision to Voltage' from 9am GMT / 17:00 SGT, Monday 2nd December here.

*Brunei Darussalam, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam

About TransitionZero

TransitionZero is a climate analytics non-profit established in 2021. We build accessible, auditable and open energy transition data and software products, and publish regular updates and explainers on the global energy transition. As a grant-funded start-up, our products and insights are used by developers, financiers, planners and think tanks supporting the transition to cleaner, more reliable energy systems around the world. For information on how TransitionZero’s energy system modelling expertise can assist your organisation, visit our website or contact us.